New Seat Details - Cambridgeshire South

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Cambridgeshire South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	32,094	53.9%
LAB	15,910	26.7%
LIB	10,313	17.3%
Green	1,211	2.0%
UKIP	43	0.1%
CON Majority	16,184	27.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Cambridgeshire South: Map

List of old seats forming part of Cambridgeshire South

Old seat: Cambridgeshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cambridge	Queen Edith's	5,491	Cambridge	1,866	1,913	1,434	0	170	0	0	0	5,383
South Cambridgeshire	Bar Hill	3,638	Cambridgeshire South	1,547	891	456	0	92	0	0	0	2,986
South Cambridgeshire	Barton	1,887	Cambridgeshire South	907	343	190	0	44	0	0	0	1,484
South Cambridgeshire	Bassingbourn	3,364	Letchworth and Royston	1,782	801	338	0	82	0	0	0	3,003
South Cambridgeshire	Bourn	7,462	Cambridgeshire South	3,232	2,009	719	0	145	0	0	0	6,105
South Cambridgeshire	Caldecote	1,829	Cambridgeshire South	654	307	462	0	21	0	0	0	1,444
South Cambridgeshire	Comberton	1,761	Cambridgeshire South	804	339	213	0	40	0	0	0	1,396
South Cambridgeshire	Cottenham	5,954	Cambridgeshire South	2,479	1,332	815	0	141	0	0	0	4,767
South Cambridgeshire	Duxford	2,089	Cambridgeshire South	964	412	242	0	39	0	0	0	1,657
South Cambridgeshire	Fowlmere and Foxton	1,870	Cambridgeshire South	861	343	183	0	46	0	0	0	1,433
South Cambridgeshire	Gamlingay	3,850	Cambridgeshire South	1,371	646	858	0	36	0	0	0	2,911
South Cambridgeshire	Girton	3,232	Cambridgeshire South	1,385	783	441	0	85	0	0	0	2,694
South Cambridgeshire	Hardwick	1,995	Cambridgeshire South	799	421	327	0	41	0	0	0	1,588
South Cambridgeshire	Harston and Hauxton	1,863	Cambridgeshire South	687	303	417	0	20	0	0	0	1,427
South Cambridgeshire	Haslingfield and The Eversdens	2,141	Cambridgeshire South	720	327	499	0	23	0	0	0	1,569
South Cambridgeshire	Longstanton	2,336	Cambridgeshire South	1,018	347	190	0	19	0	0	0	1,574
South Cambridgeshire	Melbourn	4,170	Letchworth and Royston	1,455	768	1,061	0	41	0	0	0	3,325
South Cambridgeshire	Meldreth	2,056	Letchworth and Royston	643	374	467	0	18	0	0	0	1,502
South Cambridgeshire	Orwell and Barrington	1,892	Cambridgeshire South	677	309	361	0	32	0	0	0	1,379
South Cambridgeshire	Papworth and Elsworth	4,091	Cambridgeshire South	1,660	773	390	0	71	0	0	0	2,894
South Cambridgeshire	Sawston	5,272	Cambridgeshire South	2,280	1,337	516	0	108	0	0	0	4,241
South Cambridgeshire	Swavesey	1,827	Cambridgeshire South	889	347	201	0	20	0	0	0	1,457
South Cambridgeshire	The Abingtons	1,764	Cambridgeshire South	870	310	155	0	18	0	0	0	1,353
South Cambridgeshire	The Mordens	1,888	Letchworth and Royston	855	368	186	0	17	0	0	0	1,426
South Cambridgeshire	The Shelfords and Stapleford	5,577	Cambridgeshire South	2,250	1,222	727	0	127	0	0	0	4,326
South Cambridgeshire	Whittlesford	2,069	Cambridgeshire South	975	355	251	0	18	0	0	0	1,599
	Total	81,368		33,630	17,680	12,099	0	1,514	0	0	0	64,923

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Cambridgeshire South East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire South East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire South East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Cambridgeshire	Bottisham	3,028	Cambridgeshire South East	1,230	570	443	0	0	0	0	0	2,243
East Cambridgeshire	Burwell	4,709	Cambridgeshire South East	1,952	893	626	0	0	0	0	0	3,471
East Cambridgeshire	Cheveley	2,970	Cambridgeshire South East	1,506	490	261	0	0	0	0	0	2,257
East Cambridgeshire	Dullingham Villages	1,496	Cambridgeshire South East	721	348	157	0	0	0	0	0	1,226
East Cambridgeshire	Ely East	2,870	Cambridgeshire South East	1,165	638	400	0	0	0	0	0	2,203
East Cambridgeshire	Ely North	4,917	Cambridgeshire South East	1,998	1,270	788	0	0	0	0	0	4,056
East Cambridgeshire	Ely South	2,998	Cambridgeshire South East	1,247	752	447	0	0	0	0	0	2,446
East Cambridgeshire	Ely West	3,294	Cambridgeshire South East	1,162	689	596	0	0	0	0	0	2,447
East Cambridgeshire	Fordham Villages	2,783	Cambridgeshire South East	1,353	494	243	0	0	0	0	0	2,090
East Cambridgeshire	Haddenham	4,457	Cambridgeshire South East	1,800	822	671	0	0	0	0	0	3,293
East Cambridgeshire	Isleham	1,789	Cambridgeshire South East	686	376	239	0	0	0	0	0	1,301
East Cambridgeshire	Soham North	3,535	Cambridgeshire South East	1,650	794	385	0	0	0	0	0	2,829
East Cambridgeshire	Soham South	4,785	Cambridgeshire South East	2,030	1,106	473	0	0	0	0	0	3,609
East Cambridgeshire	Stretham	3,009	Cambridgeshire South East	1,357	524	278	0	0	0	0	0	2,159
East Cambridgeshire	The Swaffhams	1,505	Cambridgeshire South East	635	251	222	0	0	0	0	0	1,108
South Cambridgeshire	Balsham	3,583	Cambridgeshire South East	1,517	557	509	0	0	0	0	0	2,583
South Cambridgeshire	Fulbourn	3,608	Cambridgeshire South	1,221	727	649	0	0	0	0	0	2,597
South Cambridgeshire	Histon and Impington	7,640	Cambridgeshire South East	2,518	1,939	1,417	0	0	0	0	0	5,874
South Cambridgeshire	Linton	3,632	Cambridgeshire South	1,284	657	727	0	0	0	0	0	2,668
South Cambridgeshire	Milton	3,022	Cambridgeshire South East	1,070	763	775	0	0	0	0	0	2,608
South Cambridgeshire	Teversham	1,736	Cambridgeshire South	735	592	225	0	0	0	0	0	1,552
South Cambridgeshire	The Wilbrahams	2,034	Cambridgeshire South East	900	427	194	0	0	0	0	0	1,521
South Cambridgeshire	Waterbeach	3,936	Cambridgeshire South East	1,712	741	628	0	0	0	0	0	3,081
South Cambridgeshire	Willingham and Over	5,221	Cambridgeshire South East	2,151	1,026	605	0	0	0	0	0	3,782
	Total	82,557		33,600	17,446	11,958	0	0	0	0	0	63,004

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire South East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Huntingdon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Huntingdon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Huntingdon				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Huntingdonshire	Alconbury and The Stukeleys	2,532	Huntingdon and St Neots	985	503	211	70	20	0	0	0	1,789
Huntingdonshire	Brampton	4,460	Huntingdon and St Neots	2,109	1,036	518	154	54	0	0	0	3,871
Huntingdonshire	Buckden	2,616	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,038	517	87	86	27	0	0	0	1,755
Huntingdonshire	Ellington	3	Cambridgeshire North West	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Huntingdonshire	Fenstanton	2,338	Huntingdon and St Neots	960	472	138	58	22	0	0	0	1,650
Huntingdonshire	Godmanchester	4,818	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,670	1,171	519	152	53	0	0	0	3,565
Huntingdonshire	Gransden and The Offords	3,593	Cambridgeshire South	1,825	478	99	43	25	0	0	0	2,470
Huntingdonshire	Huntingdon East	6,686	Huntingdon and St Neots	2,397	1,715	690	211	71	0	0	0	5,084
Huntingdonshire	Huntingdon North	3,510	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,273	1,796	291	154	45	0	0	0	3,559
Huntingdonshire	Huntingdon West	4,772	Huntingdon and St Neots	2,161	1,308	300	149	54	0	0	0	3,972
Huntingdonshire	Kimbolton and Staughton	2,485	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,272	358	68	58	20	0	0	0	1,776
Huntingdonshire	Little Paxton	3,036	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,222	401	140	37	22	0	0	0	1,822
Huntingdonshire	St Ives East	4,748	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,916	1,266	319	162	58	0	0	0	3,721
Huntingdonshire	St Ives South	5,060	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,903	1,139	310	137	54	0	0	0	3,543
Huntingdonshire	St Ives West	2,363	Huntingdon and St Neots	749	481	203	64	22	0	0	0	1,519
Huntingdonshire	St Neots Eaton Ford	5,212	Huntingdon and St Neots	2,291	960	191	134	47	0	0	0	3,623
Huntingdonshire	St Neots Eaton Socon	4,098	Huntingdon and St Neots	1,789	860	169	68	146	0	0	0	3,032
Huntingdonshire	St Neots Eynesbury	7,503	Huntingdon and St Neots	2,896	1,858	321	240	253	0	0	0	5,568
Huntingdonshire	St Neots Priory Park	6,495	Huntingdon and St Neots	2,288	1,369	365	91	60	0	0	0	4,173
Huntingdonshire	The Hemingfords	4,967	Huntingdon and St Neots	2,169	751	150	114	42	0	0	0	3,226
	Total	81,295		32,914	18,440	5,089	2,182	1,095	0	0	0	59,720

The full details of these calculations are given on the Huntingdon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cambridgeshire South

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Cambridgeshire South
Huntingdonshire	Gransden and The Offords	3,489	Huntingdon	1,825	478	99	43	25	0	0	0	2,470
South Cambridgeshire	Bar Hill	3,921	Cambridgeshire South	1,547	891	456	0	92	0	0	0	2,986
South Cambridgeshire	Barton	1,949	Cambridgeshire South	907	343	190	0	44	0	0	0	1,484
South Cambridgeshire	Bourn	8,019	Cambridgeshire South	3,232	2,009	719	0	145	0	0	0	6,105
South Cambridgeshire	Caldecote	1,896	Cambridgeshire South	654	307	462	0	21	0	0	0	1,444
South Cambridgeshire	Comberton	1,834	Cambridgeshire South	804	339	213	0	40	0	0	0	1,396
South Cambridgeshire	Cottenham	6,262	Cambridgeshire South	2,479	1,332	815	0	141	0	0	0	4,767
South Cambridgeshire	Duxford	2,176	Cambridgeshire South	964	412	242	0	39	0	0	0	1,657
South Cambridgeshire	Fowlmere and Foxton	1,880	Cambridgeshire South	861	343	183	0	46	0	0	0	1,433
South Cambridgeshire	Fulbourn	3,550	Cambridgeshire South East	1,221	727	649	0	0	0	0	0	2,597
South Cambridgeshire	Gamlingay	3,823	Cambridgeshire South	1,371	646	858	0	36	0	0	0	2,911
South Cambridgeshire	Girton	3,536	Cambridgeshire South	1,385	783	441	0	85	0	0	0	2,694
South Cambridgeshire	Hardwick	2,085	Cambridgeshire South	799	421	327	0	41	0	0	0	1,588
South Cambridgeshire	Harston and Hauxton	1,874	Cambridgeshire South	687	303	417	0	20	0	0	0	1,427
South Cambridgeshire	Haslingfield and The Eversdens	2,061	Cambridgeshire South	720	327	499	0	23	0	0	0	1,569
South Cambridgeshire	Linton	3,646	Cambridgeshire South East	1,284	657	727	0	0	0	0	0	2,668
South Cambridgeshire	Longstanton	2,067	Cambridgeshire South	1,018	347	190	0	19	0	0	0	1,574
South Cambridgeshire	Orwell and Barrington	1,811	Cambridgeshire South	677	309	361	0	32	0	0	0	1,379
South Cambridgeshire	Papworth and Elsworth	3,799	Cambridgeshire South	1,660	773	390	0	71	0	0	0	2,894
South Cambridgeshire	Sawston	5,569	Cambridgeshire South	2,280	1,337	516	0	108	0	0	0	4,241
South Cambridgeshire	Swavesey	1,913	Cambridgeshire South	889	347	201	0	20	0	0	0	1,457
South Cambridgeshire	Teversham	2,121	Cambridgeshire South East	735	592	225	0	0	0	0	0	1,552
South Cambridgeshire	The Abingtons	1,777	Cambridgeshire South	870	310	155	0	18	0	0	0	1,353
South Cambridgeshire	The Shelfords and Stapleford	5,681	Cambridgeshire South	2,250	1,222	727	0	127	0	0	0	4,326
South Cambridgeshire	Whittlesford	2,101	Cambridgeshire South	975	355	251	0	18	0	0	0	1,599
	Total	78,840		32,094	15,910	10,313	43	1,211	0	0	0	59,571

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cambridgeshire South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Heidi Allen (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,840
Turnout:	75.6%

Cambridgeshire South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Cambridgeshire South: Overview

Introduction